The Ethics, Economics, and Demographics of Delaying Aging
in Essays on Longtermism, eds. H. Greaves & W. MacAskill
Delaying aging will yield enormous social benefits and is under-resourced.
bioethicseconomics
PDFDavid Manley
Philosopher working on reasoning, emerging technology, and global priorities.
About
I'm a tenured associate professor in the philosophy department at the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor.
Much of my past research was about semantics, ontology, and probability. I now work on philosophical issues connected to rationality, emerging technology, and global priorities.
I advocate completely rethinking the standard undergraduate philosophical curriculum. To that end, I’ve created several new courses at UM (described below), as well as a critical thinking textbook called Reason Better. Instructors can request free access at the link below.
Recent Talks
Paine & Pigou & George & Claude: Social surplus, externalities, and an AI dividend
Technical AI Governance Forum, London, Aug 2025
AI labor and human well-being
World Bank ASA Workshop, Warsaw, May 2025
Reasoning education in a world of AI
AI for Epistemics Workshop, San Francisco, May 2024
The ethics of lifespan extension
Rutgers Summer Institute for Diversity in Philosophy, July 2021
Selected Papers
See the CV for a full list.
On Being a Random Sample
work in progress
Bayesian conditionalization is wrong and also too narrow: what can we replace it with?
formal epistemologyself-locating belief
PDFMoral Realism and Semantic Plasticity
work in progress
Moral realists can accept semantic plasticity and explain Moral Twin Earth-style intuitions at low cost
metaethicsdeflationism
PDFGod and the Bayesian Conception of Evidence
forthcoming in Religious Studies
Cognitive pitfalls are pervasive when assessing evidential arguments about the existence of God.
bayesianismevidentialism
PDFQuantifier Variance
in The Routledge Handbook of Metametaphysics, eds. R. Bliss & J.T.M Miller
An overview and limited defense of quantifier variance. (Co-authored with Rohan Sud)
metaontologysemantics
PDFDispositions Without Teleology
Oxford Studies in Metaphysics, vol. 10: 47-59
Rejects teleological accounts of dispositions and defends our view against new objections. (Co-authored with Ryan Wasserman)
metaphysicsdispositions
PDFThe Folk Probably Do Think What You Think They Think
Australasian Journal of Philosophy, 91(3): 421–441
We find that philosophers can predict ‘surprising’ results in experimental philosophy; we clarify the role of experiments in philosophical analysis. (Co-authored with Billy Dunaway & Anna Edmonds)
x-phimetaphilosophy
PDFDispositionality: Beyond the Biconditionals
Australasian Journal of Philosophy, 90(2): 321–334
What is it to be a disposition? Biconditional 'analyses' of dispositions don't go far enough.
metaphysicssemantics
PDFDispositions, Conditionals, and Counterexamples
Mind, 120: 1191–1227
Defends our account of dispositions; considers the nature of conditionals and centering. (Co-authored with Ryan Wasserman)
metaphysicssemantics
PDFWhen Best Theories Go Bad
Philosophy and Phenomenological Research, 78(2): 392–405
Sometimes even realists should repudiate the ontological commitments of our best theories.
ontologymetaphilosophy
PDFA Guided Tour of Metametaphysics
in Metametaphysics (Oxford University Press)
Introduces the contemporary landscape of metaontology; offers a limited defense of ontological deflationism.
ontologymetaphilosophy
PDFOn Linking Dispositions With Conditionals
Mind, 117: 59–84
Raises new problems for conditional accounts of dispositions; offers a new account that solves them. (Co-authored with Ryan Wasserman)
metaphysicssemantics
PDFSafety, Content, Apriority, Self-Knowledge
Mind, 117: 59–84
Revises the epistemic condition of 'safety'; rethinks the a priori in light of semantic externalism
epistemologythe apriori
PDFA Gradable Approach to Dispositions
The Philosophical Quarterly, 57: 68–75
Accounts for degrees of dispositions while avoiding the problems of finks and masks. (Co-authored with Ryan Wasserman)
metaphysicssemantics
PDFUpcoming Courses
Course pages with longer descriptions and readings.
Phil 450: Philosophy of Emerging Technology
Upcoming / upper-level
How to shape a better future in a world of AI, human enhancement, climate tech, and engineered viruses: well-being, agency, and risks
Info & Readings
Phil 360: Global Priorities
Recurring
An interdisciplinary course on the world’s most important problems and how to help: global health/poverty, animals/environment, emerging technologies.
Info & Readings
Phil 183: Critical Reasoning
Recurring
Practical reasoning tools from philosophy, cognitive psych, and behavioral econ: logic, probability, decision theory; biases, evidence, causation.
Info & Readings